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Friday 14 March 2014

Once again, the fear of flying

The tragic disappearance of the Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777 flight MH370 over the Gulf of Thailand is another reminder of Murphy’s Law: “If there is a possibility of several things going wrong, the one that will cause the most damage will be the one to go wrong.” The flight had just settled into its cruising altitude of 35,000ft when it disappeared from the radar screens. There were no distress calls or signals indicating an emergency.
The weather conditions in the area would have been of vital importance. If the aircraft had encountered high thunderstorm clouds and they were on the lee side, there is every possibility of the aircraft having encountered a warm downdraft which would have resulted in a rapid loss of airspeed. All modern high-performance jet aircrafts have FADEC (Full Authority Digital Electronic Control) that sets engine thrust limits based on ambient temperatures. An aircraft flying at 35,000ft and encountering temperatures that normally exist at a much lower altitude would find rapid loss of speed and non-availability of thrust due to the limits set by FADEC. The only option is to lose altitude rapidly. Did flight MH370 encounter such a condition?

The Digital Flight Data Recorder will reveal the final moments of the flight. If the weather had been clear as reported by some people, and it was a case of Clear Air Turbulence (CAT), it could be a case of “loss of control,” but it is intriguing that the experienced pilot gave no distress call. Another question that may arise is whether both the pilots were in the cockpit at the time of the event. The co-pilot had about 3,000hrs, which is ten times more than what many Indian carriers have for their co-pilots. He could have been overwhelmed by the turbulence if he had not experienced it before or if it had not been covered in detail during training.
The NTSB will be involved in the investigation since MH370 was an American-manufactured aircraft. Unlike the Indian authorities, preliminary reports will come out as soon as the Cockpit Voice Recorder and the Digital Flight Data Recorder are recovered and decoded. The next few days will throw some light on what could have happened to this tragic flight.
Read news in full 10/03/14 A Ranganathan/The Hindu
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